PENNSYLVANIA, USA — The latest storm system is poised to blast northeastern and central Pennsylvania with yet more snow, sleet and heavy rain. Flooding is possible.
So far, river level forecasts show the Susquehanna River flirting with minor flooding over the next few days. That, however, is in flux as the system develops, said Mitchell Gains, the chief meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Binghamton, New York.
"There is still a decent potential for minor flooding at this point," Gains said.
The factors that go into drawing up that forecast include the expected snow melt, the projected fresh rain and the amount of rain that's already fallen in the last few months, Gains said.
In the Scranton area, nearly 6 inches of rain fell in December, which is roughly twice the normal amount, he said. The 2.38 inches of rain in November is about average.
The snow cover can also cause more runoff at first as it prevents the ground from absorbing the rain.
The one-two punch has caused problems plenty of times before, including to disastrous effect. Here's some examples from the last few years:
February 2022
Snowmelt and rainwater caused flooding in part of Union County early on Feb. 4, 2022. A woman and her husband in Millmont awoke to find their home surrounded by frigid water.
More than 5 inches of snow that had fallen in January started to melt as temperatures climbed into the upper 30s, according to National Weather Service data. Then, on Feb. 3, 2022, 1.62 inches of rain fell.
December 2020
Flood waters in Luzerne County — the product of heavy rain and melted snow — caused the Susquehanna River to crest above 25 feet.
Roughly 11 inches of snow fell between Dec. 16, 2020 and Dec. 17, 2020, but it did not stick around for long. Within a few days, temperatures started to rise into the 40s and even into the 60s by Christmas.
On Christmas Eve, 1.31 inches of rain fell followed by another half-inch of precipitation the following day.
The messy mixture caused the Nescopeck Creek to crest over its bank and surround homes with water.
January 2019
A late January double whammy flooded yards and closed roads in parts of our area. Five inches of snow fell on Jan. 19, 2019, followed by 1.5 the following day. Then came the warm-up, the melt-off and the rain — nearly 1.5 inches of fresh rain by Jan. 24, 2019.
The result swamped yards and caused ponding on roads. The Susquehanna River in Wilkes-Barre crested at 8 that evening at 17.45 feet.
Check river and stream levels near you HERE.
Get the full Stormtracker 16 forecast HERE.