LEHMAN, Pa. — Phil has seen his shadow, predicting 6 more weeks of winter, a total of 107 times since the tradition began in 1887. He forecasted an early spring just 20 times, most recently in both 2019 and 2020. That is the only time Phil predicted an early spring back-to-back years. There are also a handful of years from the 1800s where there is no record of what Phil predicted.
Meteorologists with NOAA compared U.S. national temperatures with Phil's forecasts over a ten-year span, and determined he is only right about 40% of the time. And even though groundhogs might not be able to predict the weather, they have other benefits.
"Most people are really ticked off about groundhogs because they mess up the soil. They actually help the soil because they bring more nutritious soil up as they're digging their burrows and mines. So we in Northeast PA should appreciate them just for their mining ability," said Chris Miller, Lehman Sanctuary. He also says those burrows also end up becoming homes to other animals like foxes which are predators for beetles and mice.
Lehman Sanctuary is a non-profit in Lehman Township. Schools and community groups come out all year round to learn about weather sheds, rain gardens, and wildlife habitats. Chris Miller is the founder and director of the sanctuary and is always happy to discuss the groundhogs, especially this time of year.
"They're very intelligent in that they foster their young, they have this amazing communication ability, they whistle and they give off warnings through different kind of variables of their whistling," Miller said.
That is why groundhogs are sometimes called whistle pigs. Miller says he has a few groundhog burrows here on the sanctuary's property, but he hasn't spotted any groundhogs recently. He thinks within the next month or so, they'll start to come out and start to become vocal, and by May and June, there will be lots of babies.
"I think it's just a really exciting, fun tradition because it's about wildlife, it's about changes of seasons. It's about culture and it's about Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. We love that," said Miller.
Phil will make his prediction right around sunrise this morning at 7:28 am. There will be a lot of clouds this morning, which you would think means he will not be able to see his shadow, forecasting an early spring.