Hello November!

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Long range forecastWhat a way to start the month of November in NE & Central PA.  Yes, it’s breezy but sunny and warm.  The high temperature in our backyard was 69 degrees.  When was the last time we started the month of November like this?  You have to go back to 2006, when the high on November 1st was 62 degrees with sunshine.  Over the past decade we’ve only seen a few start like this!

I’ve included the long-range forecast for the month of November as issued by the National Weather Service.  They call for the month of November to have an “Equal Chance” of being above or below average.  Basically saying it could go either way.  I’ve never been much of a fan of long-range forecasts.  My personal experience, many times they are inaccurate .  Long-range forecasts rely on computer models as well as historic averages among other things.  Sometimes they’re right on and other times way off.  Just look at the long-range forecast for the 2013 hurricane season, issued earlier this year.  Oops!

All in all, the technology used to predict the weather has gotten much better over time.  When it comes to giving a seven-day forecast, we get it right most of the time.  We record the high and low temperatures along with sky conditions each day.  We then compare that with our forecast.  That’s how we know we’re pretty close most of the time on our 7 day forecast.

Here’s a popular saying among those that predict the weather.  “…People never remember when we are right but they NEVER forget when we are wrong…” ha ha

Meteorologist Kurt Aaron